Presentation tip #3: Follow John Cochrane’s advice to seminar presentations

John Cochrane of the Uni­ver­sity of Chicago wrote a bril­liant advice paper to PhD stu­dent few years ago. The paper should be read reli­giously by all PhD research stu­dents. The sec­tion on sem­i­nar pre­sen­ta­tions (sec­tion 4) cov­ers short and sweet guide­lines to increase the prob­a­bil­ity of suc­cess when it comes to pre­sen­ta­tions. It may be incom­plete on var­i­ous pre­sen­ta­tion aspects but nonethe­less one of the best place to start think­ing and struc­tur­ing your pre­sen­ta­tions. Below I copy/paste the sec­tion 4 of the paper (page 11–12). Read it care­fully… it is not long!

4 Sem­i­nar pre­sen­ta­tions
You will not believe how fast the time will go by.

Since time is lim­ited, it’s espe­cially impor­tant to get to the point. We can’t skim to the
impor­tant stuff in a seminar!

You don’t need any lit­er­a­ture review or moti­va­tion in a sem­i­nar. Just get to the point.
Gene Fama usu­ally starts his sem­i­nars with “Look at table 1.” That’s a good model to
emulate.

Don’t “pre­view” results. It wastes time; why say it twice rather than say it once, right?

Don’t make slides with a bul­let point for every word you intend to say. This forces you
into a pre­planned order, and then you can’t change on the fly when you figure out how fast
time is going by. Slides are fine that only con­tain equa­tions, tables and graphs — things
we really need to see. At most use words for the one or two really impor­tant things you
want peo­ple to know, e.g. “Identification: inter­est rates do not respond to fiscal shocks in the Ricar­dian model.” Also, you want peo­ple to remem­ber the struc­ture of the model, definitions of vari­ables, etc. If you have too much junk on the slides, peo­ple can’t see the util­ity func­tion while you’re talk­ing about the pro­duc­tion func­tion, so they get lost. Peo­ple don’t remem­ber equa­tions from one slide to the next.

You have to leave slides up for a decent amount of time in order for peo­ple to digest
them. That means you will not be able to put up 1 slide per minute!

As in writ­ing the paper, your main objec­tive is to get to the #1 impor­tant con­tri­bu­tion
as fast as possible.

Most sem­i­nars are a dis­as­ter. They start with point­less moti­va­tion and pol­icy impli­ca­tions, which the audi­ence can’t fol­low since we don’t know the result. Then we get a long
lit­er­a­ture review, which is even more bor­ing since we don’t know the point of this paper
much less what every­one else did. Then we get a results pre­view. Usu­ally, the pre­sen­ter says “I’ll pre­view the results now because I may not have time to get to them all,” a strangely self-fulfilling prophecy. Since show­ing the main results is the only rea­son you came, why not just start right now! Worse, the rea­son we run out of time is because we wasted half an hour on the stu­pid pre­view! The sem­i­nar then bogs down as peo­ple start ask­ing ques­tions about the pre­viewed results; most of the ques­tions are dumb (“I mea­sure the demand elas­tic­ity at 0.3.” “But how did you iden­tify sup­ply shifts?”) since they will be explained in a proper pre­sen­ta­tion of the results. But the ques­tions are totally rea­son­able since the claim with no doc­u­men­ta­tion is mean­ing­less. Next, we get (in empir­i­cal papers) some “theory” that is really beside the point and only serves to pro­voke more need­less argu­ment (no, there really is no way to dis­tin­guish the “behav­ioral” and “ratio­nal” expla­na­tion. Clever audi­ence mem­bers will come up with sto­ries that reverse all the signs.) Then we get some dis­tract­ing pre­lim­i­nary results and tables and graphs of unre­lated obser­va­tions. More point­less dis­cus­sion erupts; peo­ple don’t know what point the speaker is try­ing to make and the dis­cus­sion goes off in to tan­gents. Finally the speaker sees there is only 10 min­utes to go, tells peo­ple to be quiet, and the main results go by in a big rush. Every­one is tired and con­fused and doesn’t fol­low any­thing. I timed the finance work­shop last win­ter quar­ter and not one paper got to the main results in under an hour!

Lis­ten to the ques­tions, all the way to the end, then count to three before answer­ing.
Yes, you’re in a rush, and yes, you think you can guess what the ques­tion will be and you
know the answer. This isn’t a game show, and much of the time you actu­ally don’t know
what the ques­tion will be.

Keep a sheet of paper handy. You may not have a quick answer to every ques­tion, and
some ques­tions may point to good things to change in the paper.

You can­not make it too sim­ple. Most pre­sen­ters, espe­cially Ph. D. stu­dents over­es­ti­mate
dra­mat­i­cally how much the­ory peo­ple can digest in one sit­ting, and how quickly they can
mem­o­rize and digest mod­els and results.

Speak loudly, slowly and clearly.

There’s noth­ing wrong with end­ing early!*

* I bolded the last line… and not John Cochrane. Fin­ish­ing ear­lier does not kill anyone.

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Taking risks in Japan: maybe there is already too much to risk to cope with…

Many say that Japan’s strug­gling econ­omy of the last 20 years is result of the poor entre­pre­neur­ial risk-taking. We know that avoid­ing risk is some­thing that is cul­tur­ally embed­ded. It is known that when you fail once as an entre­pre­neur you will be known as a fail­ure for the rest of your life. Quite hard to get the moti­va­tion to take risk right?

I am cur­rently on my third to Japan (a place that I now call my sec­ond home) and every time I ques­tion how this econ­omy can get back on its feet again. We can always push the peo­ple to take more entre­pre­neur­ial risk but we must rec­og­nize some­thing… that coun­try lives in an envi­ron­ment where dan­gers and risks sur­rounds them day in and day out: tsunamis, every­day earth­quakes, the crazy North Kore­ans, typhoons, vol­canos that can erupt at any moment, and now nuclear risks. Maybe, cul­tur­ally, the indi­vid­u­als are fed up on tak­ing more risks — they have plenty to cope with already!

 

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Creative introduction to a paper

Andrew Lo of MIT has recently wrote a paper which reviews 21 books on the recent finan­cial cri­sis. I haven’t fully read the arti­cle yet but what struck me the most was the anal­ogy to a clas­sic 1950 Japan­ese movie Rashomon by Akira Kuro­sawa in the intro­duc­tion. Very cre­ative way to get the read­ers’ atten­tion right from the start!

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Presentation tip #2: Avoid the podium

Unless you have to do a speech of some­thing like 30min or more (with no slides), please but please avoid the podium! If you are pre­sent­ing with slides, the audi­ence expect you to move around. If you stay behind the podium, we have the impres­sion that you are hid­ing some­thing or you are just sim­ply uncom­fort­able to stand in front of people.

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Moneyball: Why money can definitely help out when you run after under-valued players

Story of Moneyball

I always wanted to read the book Mon­ey­ball by Michael Lewis but I never had the chance. In exchange, I just saw the movie on Lewis’ book (nonethe­less, I still intend to read the book). For those who don’t have a clue what Mon­ey­ball is all about just read the wiki page but roughly the story behind Mon­ey­ball is how a man, a base­ball team gen­eral man­ager, with lit­tle finan­cial resources can com­pete against big pow­er­ful teams with a lot of cash (i.e. Yan­kees and the Red Sox). The “poor” team in ques­tion was the Oak­land A’s and their Gen­eral Man­ager used some sim­i­lar con­cepts of value invest­ing to find play­ers that will give him the best bang for the bucks invested and remain com­pet­i­tive against teams that spend three times more on payroll.

Is it only about stats?

To get the best bang for your bucks invested in play­ers, the Gen­eral Man­ager heav­ily relied on stats (more than just RBI, hit­ting %, etc.) – in part, stats develop by Bill James. One of the goals of the GM was to line-up play­ers with sim­i­lar stats and pick the cheap­est one. Hence, you get the biggest bang for your bucks. More impor­tantly, if the player does not live up to its poten­tial, you will limit the finan­cial cost (sim­i­lar to the mar­gin of safety).

Here’s why money mat­ters and why it is not only about stats

Imag­ine you have two or more play­ers where the stats are almost iden­ti­cal. You will look for the cheap­est play­ers since you have a low salary cap. Here’s why money mat­ters — by that I mean why spend­ing more for some­one with sim­i­lar stats mat­ters. Stats don’t incor­po­rate all aspects of a player such as team lead­er­ship and sports­man­ship. These qual­i­ta­tive skills tend to be incor­po­rated into the salary some GM is will­ing to give to player – which are sig­nif­i­cant to win base­ball play­offs games. So, if a GM selects the cheap­est player among those with the iden­ti­cal stats, he is neglect­ing the qual­i­ta­tive aspect of a player and its unpre­dictable con­se­quences (i.e. there are some play­ers that carry with them a trouble-maker reputation).

Bot­tom line

The bot­tom line is that the more money you have, greater the pos­si­bil­ity to invest more on a player with qual­i­ta­tive or even tacit skills that is hard to quan­tify but how cru­cial in order to win cham­pi­onships. Don’t get me wrong, the stats of a player is fun­da­men­tal and I think what the GM in Mon­ey­ball did was bril­liant but if he had more money to shop around he would have been able to pay extra for play­ers with more qual­i­ta­tive skill. Nonethe­less, the stats deter­mine the price floor (i.e. the player that cost the less given the iden­ti­cal stats with other play­ers is the price floor).

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Favorite albums of 2011

(This is out of topic… but since I am a huge geeky fan of music…)

The time has come for me to share with you my favorites of 2011… Its been a weird year of music. I have the impres­sion that I missed a lot of good albums (have less time to dis­cover music). There was some very excel­lent music that I highly rec­om­mend and other many good albums. This time I have 4 cat­e­gories: (1) EXCELLENT, (2) UNDECIDED between Excel­lent and Good and (3) GOOD… and (4) Excel­lent EPs. Here they are:

(1) EXCELLENT

–Nujabes — Spir­i­tual State

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tvcHbkp25

–Washed Out — Within and Without

–Cun­nin­lyn­guists — Oneirology

–Bon Iver — Bon Iver (I was quite late on this one…)

–Clams Casino — Instru­men­tal 2LP

(2) UNDECIDED between excel­lent and good

M83 — Hurry Up, We’re Dreaming

–The Roots — Undun

–The Week­ends — House of Bal­loons (this one might end up in 1)

–Gang Gang Dance — Eye Contact

–The Field — Loop­ing State of Mind (this one might even­tu­ally go to 1… time will tell)

–One­hotrix Point Never — Replica

 

(3) GOOD

–James Blake — James Blake

–Neon Indian — Era Extrana

–Ran­dom Axe — Ran­dom Axe

–Youth Lagoon — The Year of Hibernation

–Gretchen Par­lato — The Lost and Found

- A Winged Vic­tory for the Sullen

–Onra — Chi­nois­erie part II

–Grouper — Alien Observer

–Araab Muzik — Elec­tronic Dreams

–Cut Copy — Zonoscope

 

 

(4) Excel­lent EPs

–Nico­lay with the Hot at Nights — Shibuya Session

–Sarah MK — Worth It

–Bur­ial — Street Halo

–Onra — Edits (spe­cial for Japan)

…there you go…

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Presentation tip #1

I’ve seen many aca­d­e­mic pre­sen­ta­tion in the past and now many as a phd stu­dent and there are few (if not many) things that annoys the crap out of me about pre­sen­ta­tions. I’ve decided to start a new “sec­tion” on the site on how to improve your pre­sen­ta­tion skills. I am not the best pre­sen­ter in the world but I always want to con­tin­u­ously improve my skills. For those who wish to improve their pre­sen­ta­tion con­tent and deliv­ery, you may want to dras­ti­cally change every­thing you do or grad­u­ally improve step by step (cer­tainly for the risk-averse aca­d­e­mic envi­ron­ment). I sug­gest you to start with this sim­ple tip…Here’s tip #1:

Never use any pow­er­point or other soft­wares’ templates

(except for a sim­ple color back­ground like “gra­di­ent” in Keynote which I like to use)

Why? Because, for some rea­son, pre­sen­ters, like to fill in all the use­less com­po­nents of the tem­plate such as: slide num­ber, name of the author(s) at the bot­tom of every slides, and hav­ing the school (or com­pany) logo on all the slides! Also, tem­plates tend to come with fancy and unim­por­tant design. All this adds some noise to your visual aids! I have made a sam­ple pre­sen­ta­tion design that looks extremely famil­iar to what we see in academia:

Here’s what’s bad:

1) We have all seen this ter­ri­ble tem­plate. The color boxes are use­less. Why are there any boxes in the first place? That mid­dle cir­cle is point­less (in fact its often use for the slide number).

2) Hav­ing the slide num­ber at the bot­tom of each slide is again use­less. Pre­sen­ta­tions with slide num­ber (out of the total slide num­ber — e.g. 5/55) only allows the audi­ence to gauge how long there is left to the pain at sit­ting in front of some­one read­ing their slides. Even if the pre­sen­ter is good — what’s the point of slide num­bers anyways?

3) On the sec­ond slide, why the hell do pre­sen­ters like to put their name, their insti­tu­tion, and often the con­fer­ence name at the bot­tom of each slides! First, we all know the name of the presenter(s) and the insti­tu­tion from the title slide — if we don’t, we will refer to the paper that the author(s) is pre­sent­ing (the audi­ence nor­mally has a copy). At last, the peo­ple in the audi­ence know which con­fer­ence they are attend­ing. It is OK to men­tion it on the first slide but even that — the audi­ence hope­fully know where they are.

Get rid of the noise with sim­ple slides like these ones:

(imag­ine the intro­duc­tion slide with VERY FEW words)

Sim­ple no?

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Ostrom on multidisciplinary (and team) research

I have found a great video of Eli­nor Ostrom talk­ing about the need in acad­e­mia to push for more mul­ti­dis­ci­pli­nary research. Most of the cre­ative side of her work came from study­ing var­i­ous dis­ci­plines. Sadly, many don’t have the same approach or vision in acad­e­mia. Enjoy!

 

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Karl Popper’s interpretation of Occupy Wall Street

I always won­dered what would Karl Pop­per say about the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) move­ment. Well that being said, the move­ment is almost dead now but there will be another move­ment sim­i­lar in the future. OWS has led me to think on var­i­ous occa­sions on whether or not this movement’s objec­tives are in line with Popper’s open soci­ety. Can we define the OWS as a move­ment in response to the cur­rent lack of “open­ness” and fair­ness in soci­ety (I will focus primely on the United States)? On my many grounds, we can def­i­nitely say so. On the other hand, this move­ment may also ask for future trou­ble. Trou­bles that may sup­press their free­dom if it gen­er­ates into a social class war. For the moment being, let’s focus on the fun­da­men­tal mes­sages the OWS move­ment. From watch­ing sev­eral inter­net videos and tele­vi­sion broad­casts, the recur­rent  themes are: the top one per cent of earn­ers are improv­ing their incomes at the expense of the remain­ing 99 per cent, with many mid­dle– and low-income earn­ers left behind; mov­ing the power from the states to peo­ple; jail cor­po­rate crim­i­nals; cap­i­tal­ism “got to go”; more eco­nomic and social free­dom; protest­ing against greed; end polit­i­cal dona­tions from cor­po­ra­tions; tax richer more to have more money for higher edu­ca­tions; eco­nomic jus­tice; greater bank regulations

. In other words, what the pro­tes­tors want is sim­ple: greater eco­nomic and social fair­ness and equal­ity. Pop­per would sup­port the OWS since this is a move­ment that can only take place in an open and demo­c­ra­tic soci­ety where the peo­ple can critic and protest in peace with­out any recourse of vio­lence. How­ever, OSW fun­da­men­tal mes­sages vague­ness is a major weak­ness to the move­ment. Fair­ness should be the pri­mary aim for the pro­tes­tors and not equal­ity Pop­per would say. Fair­ness is what allows the con­tin­uum of an open soci­ety whereas equal­ity sim­ply calls for the abo­li­tion of free­dom. What fol­lows is to under­stand why the OWS move­ment claim of greater fair­ness in the pol­i­tics and eco­nom­ics is the direct result of a down­ward trend of “open­ness” in the U.S. Next, with the help of the econ­o­mist Friedrich Von Hayek, one of Popper’s accom­plice, we will then look at why the cur­rent move­ment might lead to the oppo­site expec­ta­tion: the abo­li­tion of freedom.

Popper’s Inter­pre­ta­tion of Occupy Wall Street

I want true democ­racy, for the 99% of us that don’t have any” A Occupy Wall Street Protestor

For always the United States has sold the idea that the coun­try stand on the top of the podium when it comes to democ­racy and open soci­ety. Has the U.S. about to fall down the podium? Many will claim so. If we take a close look at the some the asser­tion of the OWS move­ment, we have the impres­sion that the U.S. polit­i­cal sys­tem is either heav­ily cor­rupted or that it is sim­ply feel unde­mo­c­ra­tic for the U.S. cit­i­zen. Why is this the case? Karl Poppers’s notion of the open soci­ety will help us high­light some of the cur­rent weak­nesses in the U.S. polit­i­cal and demo­c­ra­tic sys­tem. The finan­cial cri­sis of 2008 sent a sig­nal to the U.S. pop­u­la­tion that the coun­try may be run by a social elite group: bankers. As said by Nas­sim Taleb in a recent inter­view on Bloomberg: “we still live in envi­ron­ment that is one man one vote but even­tu­ally banks has fewer votes”

. The bank bailout dur­ing the cri­sis by tax­pay­ers felt like finan­cial cor­po­ra­tions have car­ried a coup d’état. Con­se­quently, this elite group run­ning the coun­try are bankers. Karl Pop­per would def­i­nitely pro­claim that the cur­rent polit­i­cal sys­tem starts to be more and more sim­i­lar to a Pla­tonic state. Plato advo­cated for a gov­ern­ment / polit­i­cal sys­tem not elected by its cit­i­zen with the rul­ing class’ inter­est rul­ing the state. Many feel that despite vot­ing for a gov­ern­ment to rep­re­sent their inter­ests, the coun­try is indi­rectly gov­erned by bankers. For instance, the gov­ern­ment is often referred to “Gov­ern­ment Sachs” — ampli­fy­ing the rela­tion­ship that Gold­man Sachs has with Wall Street

. In the past years  there have been more and more banker from Wall Street land­ing a posi­tion in the Trea­sury depart­ment in Wash­ing­ton. When bankers received a bailout, they def­i­nitely act as an elite rep­re­sent­ing their inter­est in the first place when they pay them­selves bonuses. One issue that can be rise from this state of affair in U.S. pol­i­tics is that the cur­rent Pla­tonic elite wish to abol­ish in any form of change (In Plato’s blue­print of the per­fect soci­ety, change should be abol­ish since it is the greater evil to peace). In fact, U.S. cit­i­zen has seen lit­tle change in the U.S. con­cern­ing bankers. Banks were once bailed out by tax­pay­ers in the sav­ing and loans cri­sis in the early 1980s. The soci­ety was near to another bank­ing cri­sis in the 1998 when Long-Term Cap­i­tal Man­age­ment was saved by the pri­vate sec­tor. Lit­tle seem to have change since then. The pop­u­la­tion always feel at the mercy of Wall Street Bankers. Bankers have achieved an “unfal­si­fi­able” busi­ness envi­ron­ment. Despite being wrong on their cur­rent prac­tices (e.g. com­pen­sa­tion, risk tak­ing, etc.), they have an author­ity over cap­i­tal­ism. The cap­i­tal­ism sys­tem works under the con­cept of the sur­vival of the fittest. This is one of the pri­mary rea­son why the OWS move­ment is protest­ing. It falls in line with Popper’s belief of the open soci­ety and falsification.

It is now impor­tant to ques­tion what would a piece­meal engi­neer do when face with such anger towards bankers. With­out hav­ing any opti­mal plan for a per­fect bank­ing sys­tem, small but impor­tant change can be brought by the piece­meal engi­neer. First, imple­ment one of the fun­da­men­tal rules of cap­i­tal­ism: upside and the down­side of risk. Bankers com­pen­sa­tion must be based not only on the upside but the down­side. Bankers cur­rent asym­met­ric nature of the bonuses and com­pen­sa­tion cre­ates only an incen­tive for suc­cess and risk-taking with­out a cor­re­spond­ing dis­in­cen­tive for fail­ure says Taleb (2011). The down­side for bankers is that if the bank falls apart, they must must also fail with the bank. Or sim­ply abol­ish bonuses. Extreme risk tak­ing shall be reduced. Make bank­ing bland again and bonus and bailouts should never mix. These small steps will assure not per­fec­tion in the bank­ing indus­try but at least pro­vide a response to a sys­tem that was fal­si­fied more than once with­out under­tak­ing any reforms of a complexity.

Is Occupy Wall Street Beg­ging for Authority?

As pre­vi­ously stated, Pop­per would sup­port the OSW ini­tia­tives con­cern­ing their dis­con­tent with the ties between politi­cians and big financiers. Despite the fact that the OWS move­ment was born on this par­tic­u­lar issue, Pop­per (and oth­ers such as pro­claimed by Nas­sim Taleb on Bloomberg (2011)) would fear a class strug­gle war­fare. This could be the result of the OWS hav­ing such a vague objec­tive. As pre­vi­ously shown before, the pro­tes­tors’ mes­sages vary from abol­ish­ing cap­i­tal­ism to an equal eco­nomic sys­tem to return to the roots of democ­racy. First and fore­most, Pop­per fears peo­ple those who wish to have an eco­nomic sys­tem based on equal­ity (e.g. cen­tral plan­ning). Bring­ing to power a group of politi­cians to restore greater equal­ity among classes can only occur when free­dom has been abol­ished. Is the OWS beg­ging for author­ity? Yes and no.  As one of Popper’s accom­plice, Friedrich Von Hayek once said in the Con­sti­tu­tion of Lib­erty (1960) “From the fact that peo­ple are very dif­fer­ent it fol­lows that, if we treat them equally, the result must be inequal­ity in their actual posi­tion, and that the only way to place them in an equal posi­tion would be to treat them dif­fer­ently. Equal­ity before the law and mate­r­ial equal­ity are there­fore not only dif­fer­ent but are in con­flict with each other; and we can achieve either one or the other, but not both at the same time” (p.150). The OSW mes­sage may be too vague, some would say, which makes the move­ment irrefutable. Irrefutable in the sense that they can’t be proven wrong, hence that they hold the truth. As much as politi­cians and bankers do not hold the truth so does the vox pop­uli vox dei, “which attrib­utes to the voice of the peo­ple a kind of final author­ity and unlim­ited wis­dom” (Pop­per, 1963, p.467). Pop­pers does not neglect the idea that in any pub­lic opin­ion there is a ker­nel of truth. Many sim­ple men are ofter wiser than their gov­ern­ments but there is a lot of dan­ger in pub­lic opin­ions warns Pop­per in Con­jec­tures and Refu­ta­tions. Pub­lic opin­ions is an irre­spon­si­ble form of power. Pub­lic opin­ion can impose direct pres­sure on an individual’s behav­ior and develop a doc­trine of the author­ity and unique­ness of the pop­u­lar will. There is a lot of irra­tional grasp of truth in social move­ments (like OWS) which can cumu­lates in a Hegelian doc­trine says Pop­per (1963) where peo­ple can­not be proven wrong espe­cially if they fol­low their pas­sion rather than their log­i­cal rea­son. Pop­per would sug­gest that the OWS opin­ions and mes­sages, to have a ben­e­fi­cial influ­ence, will be greater if the group is hon­est (not ask­ing for author­ity) and have a sim­ple and clear mes­sage which is not the case now.

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So… why I have decided to go into academia?

I am often ask by my entourage why I have cho­sen a career in acad­e­mia. For some rea­son, my first answer tends be: “I am fas­ci­nated by nerds.” I like to read biogra­phies of aca­d­e­mic nerds, what strug­gles nerds went through in their aca­d­e­mic life, why some nerds are good at teach­ing and some or not, why some are weirds (we are all weird one way or the other), etc.… they are sim­ply fas­ci­nat­ing peo­ple to me. They often don’t get the respect that they deserve by soci­ety. I am also a nerd… since the day that Chuck D (from Pub­lic Enemy — one my favorite music group of all time) came to my uni­ver­sity when I was an under­grad to give a speech and said “be a nerd at what you do!” Gotcha Chuck!

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