Archive for the ‘Finance’ Category

New Article on a Review of Multifractals in Finance by L. Calvet and A. Fisher

Posted 16 May 2013 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance, Fractals, Research

Last sum­mer I had the plea­sure to assist my adviser Prof. Adlai Fisher and his buddy and co-author Prof. Lau­rent Cal­vet at HEC Paris to do some research assis­tance on their new paper to be pub­lished in the Con­tem­po­rary Math­e­mat­ics titled Extreme Risk and Frac­tal Reg­u­lar­ity in Finance.  Their paper is a review of mul­ti­frac­tals in finance with an updated com­po­nent of two of their pre­vi­ous papers: (1) Mul­ti­frac­tal­ity in Asset Returns; and (2) How to Fore­cast Long Run Volatility.

I plan for the begin­ning of the sum­mer to put online the codes to repli­cate these papers. There seems to be more and more inter­est in frac­tals in finance… take a look at an inter­est­ing forth­com­ing paper in the Jour­nal of Finan­cial Econo­met­rics by Chen, Diebold, and Schorfheide titled A Markov-switching mul­ti­frac­tal inter-trade dura­tion model, with appli­ca­tion to US equi­ties.

Creative introduction to a paper

Posted 27 Dec 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance, Research

Andrew Lo of MIT has recently wrote a paper which reviews 21 books on the recent finan­cial cri­sis. I haven’t fully read the arti­cle yet but what struck me the most was the anal­ogy to a clas­sic 1950 Japan­ese movie Rashomon by Akira Kuro­sawa in the intro­duc­tion. Very cre­ative way to get the read­ers’ atten­tion right from the start!

Best presentations at the 2011 NFA

Posted 18 Sep 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance, Presentations, Research

This year I had the oppor­tu­nity to attend the 2011 North­ern Finance Asso­ci­a­tion con­fer­ence for the first time. Over 100 papers were pre­sented and I could only attend 25 pre­sen­ta­tions. There was some very good papers pre­sented but sadly the qual­ity of some pre­sen­ters lit­er­ally kills the sig­nif­i­cance of their work… we really need to improve the qual­ity of pre­sen­ta­tions in acad­e­mia – and in busi­ness in gen­eral. Any­how, three pre­sen­ta­tions stood out for me (if I judge by the qual­ity of the pre­sen­ta­tion and their research – I am aware that my per­sonal inter­est biases this selection).

*in no order*

Aure­lio Vasquez, ITAMVolatil­ity Term Struc­ture and Option Returns

Oyvind Norli (pre­sen­ter), Nor­we­gian School of Man­age­ment; Diego Gar­cia, Kenan-Flagler Busi­ness School, UNC at Chapel Hill “Geo­graphic Dis­per­sion and Stock Returns

Stephen Foer­ster (pre­sen­ter), Uni­ver­sity of West­ern Ontario; Lionel Fogler, King­west & Com­pany; Stephen Sapp, Uni­ver­sity of West­ern Ontario “North­ern Expo­sure: How Cana­dian Small Stock Invest­ments Can Ben­e­fit Investors

So I’ve decided to do a PhD in finance…

Posted 19 Aug 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance, Research

Since I’ve grad­u­ated from my Mas­ters back in April, I wasn’t too sure whether or not I would pre­fer work­ing or do a PhD. Quite frankly, I didn’t want to do a PhD. I was seek­ing employ­ment in the field of Inter­na­tional Busi­ness or Finance. I had one nice work oppor­tu­nity in Inter­na­tional Busi­ness that I almost got but fell short to a can­di­date with more expe­ri­ence. How­ever, in June I learned that I was a recip­i­ent of the SSHRC bur­sary if I would do a PhD in Canada. Right away I was about to can­cel the bur­sary since I haven’t applied to any PhD grad­u­ate schools : )

Over the fol­low­ing weeks, the recur­ring thoughts of “what I would like to research if I do a PhD” started to hunt me. Frac­tals in finance (or mul­ti­frac­tal­ity) always came back in my mind. In the past two years I devel­oped a keen inter­est in frac­tals thanks to Benoit Man­del­brot and Nas­sim Taleb. I also know that there was a pro­fes­sor at the Uni­ver­sity of British Colum­bia (Sauder School of Busi­ness) that spe­cial­ized in the sub­ject. I got excited, call the researcher / pro­fes­sor in ques­tion and asked whether I could apply for Jan­u­ary 2012… he asked me to come right away for Sep­tem­ber 2011. Well, two months after receiv­ing a let­ter stat­ing that I was a recip­i­ent of the SSHRC bur­sary I am now in Van­cou­ver BC. Am I excited: Yes! Will this pro­gram be easy: Hell no!

I will update this blog more often now since I am now “set”. Expect a lot of blog post on research and other finance related subjects.

Great line from Warren Buffett in “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville”

Posted 19 May 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance, Value investing

For the first time today (and some may say: it’s about time!) I read the clas­sic arti­cle “the Super­in­vestors of Gra­ham –and-Doddsville” written by War­ren Buf­fett in the 80’s for the 50th anniver­sary of Secu­rity Analy­sis by Ben­jamin Gra­ham and David Dodd. In this arti­cle, there is one of the best writ­ten lines on risk/reward. I always hated to learn in school that greater risk should legit­i­mately lead to greater rewards. Really? Here’s what Buf­fett has to say on risk/reward:

I would like to say one impor­tant thing about risk and reward. Some­times risk and reward are cor­re­lated in a pos­i­tive fash­ion. If some­one were to say to me, “I have here a six-shooter and I have slipped one car­tridge into it. Why don’t you just spin it and pull it once? If you sur­vive, I will give you $1 mil­lion.” I would decline — per­haps stat­ing that $1 mil­lion is not enough. Then he might offer me $5 mil­lion to pull the trig­ger twice — now that would be a pos­i­tive cor­re­la­tion between risk and reward!

The exact oppo­site is true with value invest­ing. If you buy a dol­lar bill for 60 cents, it’s riskier than if you buy a dol­lar bill for 40 cents, but the expec­ta­tion of reward is greater in the lat­ter case. The greater the poten­tial for reward in the value port­fo­lio, the less risk there is.

One quick exam­ple: The Wash­ing­ton Post Com­pany in 1973 was sell­ing for $80 mil­lion in the mar­ket. At the time, that day, you could have sold the assets to any one of ten buy­ers for not less than $400 mil­lion, prob­a­bly appre­cia­bly more. The com­pany owned thePostNewsweek, plus sev­eral tele­vi­sion sta­tions in major mar­kets. Those same prop­er­ties are worth $2 bil­lion now, so the per­son who would have paid $400 mil­lion would not have been crazy.

Now, if the stock had declined even fur­ther to a price that made the val­u­a­tion $40 mil­lion instead of $80 mil­lion, its beta would have been greater. And to peo­ple that think beta mea­sures risk, the cheaper price would have made it look riskier. This is truly Alice in Won­der­land. I have never been able to fig­ure out why it’s riskier to buy $400 mil­lion worth of prop­er­ties for $40 mil­lion than $80 mil­lion. And, as a mat­ter of fact, if you buy a group of such secu­ri­ties and you know any­thing at all about busi­ness val­u­a­tion, there is essen­tially no risk in buy­ing $400 mil­lion for $80 mil­lion, par­tic­u­larly if you do it by buy­ing ten $40 mil­lion piles of $8 mil­lion each. Since you don’t have your hands on the $400 mil­lion, you want to be sure you are in with hon­est and rea­son­ably com­pe­tent peo­ple, but that’s not a dif­fi­cult job.

Great finding: Oddball Stocks Blog

Posted 18 May 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance

Quick post on a great blog I dis­cov­ered last week: Odd­ball Stocks by Nate (don’t even know his last name). The author of this blog posts great insights on net-net Stocks… also net-net stocks on var­i­ous inter­na­tional mar­kets! The def­i­n­i­tion of “Net-Net invest­ing” is well described by investopedia.com: “Net-net invest­ing method focuses on cur­rent assets, tak­ing cash and cash equiv­a­lents at full value, reduc­ing accounts receiv­able for doubt­ful accounts, and reduc­ing inven­to­ries to liq­ui­da­tion val­ues. Total lia­bil­i­ties are then deducted from the adjusted cur­rent assets to get the company’s net-net value. This method was intro­duced by Ben­jamin Graham.”

Of course net-net stocks are rare and even if the stock trades below its net-net value it does not mean it is a good busi­ness to invest in. Is the firm prof­itable? Are the mar­gins going down? Doubts about the management?

What I like the most of this blog is the sim­plic­ity of every posts plus you can ask any­thing to Nate and he will nicely reply to you.

A nice blog!

Why value investing is a great investment philosophy

Posted 27 Apr 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance, Value investing

So why value invest­ing is a great invest­ment philosophy? Security analysis.jpg

Not because War­ren Buf­fett became rich thanks to value invest­ing. Its because the premise behind value invest­ing is this: Us, humans, are not so smart as we might think. Hence, we must come up with some tools and phi­los­o­phy to pro­tect us from our igno­rance (and emo­tions) when we invest money.

In Secu­rity Analy­sis by Ben­jamin Gra­ham and David Dodd (sixth edi­tion, p.703) there is a great line on what makes secu­rity analy­sis (value invest­ing) a great approach to investment:

In secu­rity analy­sis, the prime stress is laid upon pro­tec­tion against unto­ward events. We obtain this pro­tec­tion by insist­ing upon mar­gins of safety, or val­ues well in excess of the price paid. the under­ly­ing idea is that even if the secu­rity turns out to be less attrac­tive than it appeared, the com­mit­ment might still prove a sat­is­fac­tory one.

Its a phi­los­o­phy that shares the same thoughts of the great philoso­pher Karl R. Pop­per — “Our knowl­edge can only be finite while our igno­rance must nec­es­sar­ily be infinite.”

I may also add that value invest­ing offers the chance for investors to increase their odds to find com­pany with a “black swan*” future success.

* A black Swan event does not nec­es­sar­ily leads to a neg­a­tive consequence.

That is why value invest­ing is great — not per­fect — just great.

Saturday morning thought on investing

Posted 23 Apr 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance, Personal Finance
“Finan­cial mar­kets are effi­cient enough for small-investors to rely on pas­sive invest­ing but inef­fi­cient enough for rare and good pro­fes­sional investors to prac­tice value investing.”
So no more debate whether finan­cial mar­kets are effi­cient or not!

Invest by Simplicity: The Zen Approach to Personal Investment

Posted 23 Mar 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Finance

(full dis­clo­sure: this post was highly influ­enced by the work of Garr Reynolds from www.presentationzen.com)

On my sec­ond and recent trip to Japan, I have come to the real­iza­tion that the stud­ies of Zen arts (or the phi­los­o­phy of Zen) can teach us a lot about invest­ment but more par­tic­u­larly to our invest­ment approach that we advo­cate at Inde­pen­dent Investor. With this arti­cle, I hope to talk about three con­cepts of Zen to help lit­tle investors to remind them on how to become and remain a suc­cess­ful inde­pen­dent investor over time. First, what is Zen? In a sim­ple sen­tence, the phi­los­o­phy of Zen is the need for per­sonal aware­ness and the abil­ity to see and dis­cover with a prac­ti­cal con­cern of the “here” and the “now”. Zen helps to find order and sim­plic­ity within chaos. Zen is a neces­sity to Japan­ese cul­ture since it helps to find peace in a present moment in time in one of the most crowed and dense urban envi­ron­ment in the world. Look at the two pic­tures below:

(Chaos in Shibuya Tokyo Japan)

(Zen gar­den in Japan)

Now com­pare the two pre­vi­ous pic­tures with this:

(Stock Exchange)

(War­ren Buffett)

I am not stat­ing that Buf­fett equals Zen but he acknowl­edges the impor­tance of stand­ing away from the action and chaos of mar­kets and focus on the now: the true fun­da­men­tal value of a par­tic­u­lar invest­ment. This is not an arti­cle to learn how to become like Buf­fet but the neces­sity to acknowl­edge how the stud­ies of Zen can help us remain on the side­lines of daily stock mar­kets in order to become a suc­cess­ful inde­pen­dent investor.

Three prin­ci­ples of Zen for the inde­pen­dent investor

The three prin­ci­ples of Zen to be applied by the inde­pen­dent investor are: Restraint 拘束(Koosoku), Sim­plic­ity 簡素(Kanso), and Nat­u­ral­ness 自然(Shizen). Each of these prin­ci­ples can help any lit­tle investor becom­ing an inde­pen­dent investor and remain one over time.

Restraint 拘束 – the prepa­ra­tion stage

In Zen arts, the con­cept of con­straint or restraint is nec­es­sary. It relies on find­ing the core mes­sage that is impor­tant to evoke and ignore what is not. Take for instance Japan­ese poems known as Haiku (俳句). A Haiku has a long tra­di­tion of strict guide­lines yet it cap­tures both the details and the essence of a moment with 17 syl­la­bles or less. Restraint is key in finance. When I hear first time investor say: “What is the best way to invest and make money?” I try to explain to them that this is not the ques­tion to ask to be suc­cess­ful at invest­ing money. This ques­tion relies on too many invest­ment objec­tives. Mak­ing money should not be an objec­tive. It should be a mean to achieve a par­tic­u­lar goal such as retire­ment in 20 years, buy­ing a house, etc. Just like Haiku where you must evoke one core mes­sage, you must restrain your­self at iden­ti­fy­ing the core pur­pose of invest­ing money and not invest to sim­ply make money. Doing so, it helps the investor to focus its invest­ment strat­egy (such as asset allo­ca­tion, time hori­zon, and the amount of money you must save) to achieve a par­tic­u­lar desired goal — though you may have mul­ti­ple goals each with dif­fer­ent strategies.

Sim­plic­ity 簡素 – the invest­ment design stage

A key tenet of the Zen aes­thetic is sim­plic­ity. The famous Japan­ese gar­den designer, Dr. Koichi Kawana says that“Simplicity means the achieve­ment of max­i­mum effect with min­i­mum means.” So how can a lit­tle investor like you and me achieve the max­i­mum invest­ment return for our finan­cial goal with min­i­mum means? At Inde­pen­dent Investor we have stressed the neces­sity for lit­tle investors not to be afraid to become an inde­pen­dent investor if they are will­ing to fol­low these sim­ple invest­ment rules:

(1) Start sav­ing now, not later! Time is money. The only sure guide to wealth is reg­u­lar savings.

(2) Every dol­lar counts– elim­i­nat­ing invest­ment expenses is very important.

(3) Invest across the stock mar­ket gen­er­ally (what oth­ers call pas­sive or index invest­ing) and con­trol only what you can con­trol (asset allocations).

(4) Direct pur­chas­ing of bonds (espe­cially provin­cial gov­ern­ment bonds for Cana­di­ans) rather than through col­lec­tive invest­ment vehicles.

(5) Opti­miz­ing the use of your tax deferred accounts (RRSP/TFSA for Cana­di­ans) – Stiff the tax collector!

Dr. Bur­ton Malkiel of Prince­ton Uni­ver­sity says that the rules for achiev­ing finan­cial secu­rity through sav­ings and invest­ment are extra­or­di­nar­ily sim­ple. It may require a small degree of self-sacrifice, dis­ci­pline, and stick-to-itiveness but hav­ing suc­cess as a lit­tle investor is strik­ingly easy when fol­low­ing the sim­ple rules stated above. At last, “every­thing should be made as sim­ple as pos­si­ble” preached Ein­stein when con­sid­er­ing com­plex mod­els in phys­i­cal sci­ences. So is finance.

Nat­u­ral­ness 自然 sur­viv­ing stage

One ethos of Zen con­cerns the nat­ural beauty of gar­dens, poems, and paint­ings. This nat­ural beauty can only beex­pressed through the pro­hi­bi­tion of the use of elab­o­ra­tion of design over refine­ment. The Zen scholar Daisetsu Suzuki said: “…the first prin­ci­ple of the art is not to rely on tricks of tech­nique. Most swords­men make too much of tech­nique, some­times mak­ing it their chief con­cern…” What this can teach us on invest­ment is that investors face mar­ket move­ment on a daily basis and finance news spec­u­la­tions where the media, your friends, golf part­ner, and neigh­bors amplify what asset class or stock the investor should invest in, should he or she buy or sell, what stocks or indus­try that are hot, etc.  Hence, investors face daily ques­tion­ing on its port­fo­lio assets, asset allo­ca­tions, and per­for­mance. Don’t make the media or your entourage your chief con­cern as would say Daisetsu Suzuki on how to improve invest­ment tech­niques to increase your port­fo­lio per­for­mance. Rather, you should rely on what has a direct impact on the true nature of your port­fo­lio per­for­mance and refine it over time such as:

(1) Trade lit­tle (with a dis­count broker)

(2) Rebal­ance your port­fo­lio (if necessary).

(3) Div­i­dend Re-Investment (DRIP) and reg­u­lar savings.

(4) Beware of psy­cho­log­i­cal pit­falls (i.e. over­con­fi­dence, illu­sion of con­trol, etc.)

(5) Your capac­ity to risk over time (linked to your age).

Con­clu­sion

In this short arti­cle, I wanted to use three con­cepts of the stud­ies of Zen to help lit­tle investors by remind­ing them the sim­ple rules of invest­ing. The con­cept of restraint, sim­plic­ity, and nat­u­ral­ness can be use to remind investors on the neces­sity to have a clear invest­ment goal, design a sim­ple port­fo­lio, and focus on what directly impacts your port­fo­lio return and risk.

Why I would (only) be tempted to do a PhD

Posted 18 Feb 2011 — by Charles Martineau
Category Business organization, Education, Finance

The impact of Karl Popper

By April this year, I will have com­pleted my Mas­ters (M.Sc.) in Inter­na­tional Busi­ness with a spe­cial­iza­tion in Finance. Hence, I must find what I want to do next. Of course I want to find work, but I have to admit that I am tempted to do a PhD. Why? First, I like research. It can be really fun when you have an intel­lec­tual curios­ity. My research has been mostly in finance but my lat­est research and Master’s the­sis also involved pol­i­tics and eco­nom­ics. Also, both my super­vi­sors and I plan to pub­lish this research in a good jour­nal. Should I con­tinue in this field of study through a PhD? Not really. In the past two years I have found the field of research that I am truly pas­sion­ate about, that is: method­ol­ogy in social sci­ence from the Karl Pop­per’s per­spec­tive which nav­i­gates around the idea of piece­meal engi­neer­ing. Apply­ing Popper’s ideas to the busi­ness field and finance would be quite intrigu­ing. Fred­erich Hayek did it (vol­un­tary and invol­un­tary) to eco­nom­ics and George Soros, a big fan and a stu­dent of Pop­per, devel­oped its finan­cial spec­u­la­tive tac­tics around Popper’s philo­soph­i­cal teaching.

Another inter­est: frac­tals and chaos theory

Every time I can put my hands on a book or read­ings on frac­tals and chaos the­ory I can’t ignore it. I am not a math­e­mati­cian and I must face the fact that to truly grasp the under­stand­ing of frac­tal and chaos, if I am not mis­taken, I have no choice but to be really good in math. Nonethe­less, I under­stand the con­cepts of both chaos and frac­tals and I would love to see how both can be imple­mented in the field of social sci­ence with a par­tic­u­lar atten­tion to busi­ness orga­ni­za­tion. If a sim­ple equa­tion with no ran­dom­ness can lead to chaos, imag­ine when a busi­ness lead­ers when it tries to order their busi­ness strate­gies and orga­ni­za­tion to achieve its goal in the sim­plest mech­a­nism to evade com­plex­ity! Chaos within a firm is always pos­si­ble. Hence, I don’t ques­tion how a busi­ness leader can avoid chaos (since we can’t put our fin­ger on the true cause of chaos) but how to limit chaotic con­se­quences and decrease its occurrence.

I guess I’ll move on…to some­thing new

Can I find some school or depart­ment that does this kind of research? I haven’t found any…yet!